The Numerai Metrics Cheatsheet: CORR, MMC, BMC, CORJ60, FNCv3, Alpha, MPC, TC — Decoded — Numerai has shipped six MMC versions, four FNC variants, three CORR families, and quietly renamed CORR to Alpha and MMC to MPC for Signals. Here is a single page with current definitions, a real correlation matrix from rounds 1100–1240, and a translator for every alias.
Why No-Stake Submissions Now Outnumber Staked Ones on Numerai — Two-thirds of every Numerai round is now submitted with zero stake. The cause is not spam: it is an eight-fold rise in newcomer accounts that submit predictions but never put NMR behind them.
Numerai 2026: A Statistical Snapshot Of The Tournament — Numerai 2026 statistics as of April 28: 830,184 NMR staked across 6,467 models, NMR at $8.91, Form ADV regulatory AUM at $1.045B, and a point-in-time tournament snapshot.
Numerai Weekly Payouts: When Does NMR Actually Land? — Numerai weekly payouts settle 30 days after a round closes, at 20:00 UTC, almost always on Wednesday or Thursday. The cash-flow timing every staker should know.
Numerai Round Cadence: Daily and Weekly Tournaments — Timing data across 1,064 tournament-8 rounds shows weekly and daily rounds both settle after about a month, while weekly rounds have a wider payout distribution.
Numerai AUM: From $150M To $1B In Form ADV Filings — Numerai GP LLC reported $1.045B AUM in its April 2026 Form ADV — a 7x climb from $150M in 2022. Each new filing has been a step-change, not a smooth ramp.
NMR Price vs Tournament Activity: Six Years of Correlation — Numerai NMR price hit $89 in April 2021 with 331K NMR staked. In the April 2026 snapshot, the token sat near $9 with 830K staked. Tournament activity has not reliably tracked price.
Inside Numerai's 13F: What The Hedge Fund Actually Holds — Numerai's year-end 2025 13F reports $830M across 608 US equity positions, with Universal Display the largest holding at just 1.06% -- consistent with a systematic book.
The Volatility Tax: Why Consistent Models Earn More — Steady Numerai models earn materially more cumulative NMR than volatile peers at similar mean MMC, because burn rounds and stake-base compounding turn score variance into a real cost.
Stake Flows: How NMR Moves Around Burns — Net NMR outflows lead burn events by 1-2 rounds, large stakers (1K+ NMR) cut positions ~3% faster than small stakers after burns, and 62% of all stakes sit unchanged round to round.
Payout Gini: Is Numerai Becoming Winner-Take-All? — Numerai payout inequality rose from a Gini of 0.85 to roughly 0.97 and now sits close to stake inequality. The system is highly concentrated, with recent positive payouts dominated by the top earning cohort.
Model Archetypes: Five Numerai Quant Profiles — Clustering 19,000 Numerai models by MMC, CORJ60, BMC, and FNCv3 reveals five archetypes. Contrarians retain at 71%; High-Volatility models burn out at 2x the rate.
Meta-Model Crowding: The Tax on Success — Models in the top stake decile average 0.45 meta-model correlation versus 0.28 for the bottom decile, and models with 5x stake increases show a roughly 35-40% drop in mean MMC over the next 20 rounds.
Return Persistence: Do Numerai's Winners Keep Winning? — Displayed return persistence is weak: lag-20 autocorrelation is -0.061, the 50-round MMC quintile matrix is close to random, top-100 half-life is about 5 days, and rolling persistence is unstable.
Scoring Version Roulette: Winners and Losers When Numerai Changes the Rules — Consecutive MMC versions preserve broad structure but still reshuffle models: visible rank correlations are 0.85, 0.58, and 0.73, 37.5% of observations shift more than 15 percentile points, and only 2% look robust across versions.
Metric Convergence: Is the Tournament Becoming a Monoculture? — Rolling cross-metric correlations show MMC-CORJ60 climbing from 0.35 to 0.55 over 800 rounds while cross-sectional dispersion dropped 40%, suggesting the Numerai tournament field is converging on a narrowing set of strategies.
Numerai SEC Filings: 13F and Form ADV Footprint — SEC 13F holdings and Form ADV adviser data show Numerai GP LLC as the sole filer in this dataset, with roughly $5.5B of cumulative reported public-equity value across 13 quarters.
Numerai Model Survival: Who Lasts and Who Burns Out — Half of new Numerai models stop staking within roughly 220 staked rounds. Survival curves, cohort payouts, and the early signals that predict who lasts.
Round Economics: Where the NMR Actually Goes — Round-level NMR flows in the Numerai tournament — how much is earned, how much is burned, and whether the tournament remains net positive-sum for participants.
MMC vs CORJ60: What Numerai Actually Pays For — Across every Numerai round, MMC flips the sign of expected payout while CORJ60 drives the extreme rounds. Here is what the data shows about where stake should go.
Numerai Meta-Model: Stake Concentration and Effective N — Numerai's stake-weighted meta-model now has an equal-weight-equivalent participant count near 50, down from a peak near 175, even as total staked models passed 4,000.