· 18 min read
Numerai’s Atomic Staking Bet on Longer Predictions
Numerai’s 60-day payouts could support a larger fund.
Research & analysis
A closer look at Numerai.
Research notes on prediction scores, NMR staking and the people behind the models. Original data windows and method notes accompany each article.
55 articles · Newest first
· 2 min read
Before Atomic Staking: Numerai's Legacy Payout Factor
The August legacy stake and payout-factor comparison, revised to separate historical dilution from atomic position returns and current committed capital.
· 5 min read
Who Really Controls Numerai's Meta-Model Stake
Numerai's 3,373 staked models collapse into 948 accounts.
· 6 min read
How Many Independent Bets Is a Year of Numerai?
Numerai's overlapping 20-day scoring makes daily rounds 85% correlated: 762 rounds shrink to ~31 independent bets, and a 10 bp edge takes years to prove.
· 5 min read
How Deep Do Numerai Model Drawdowns Run?
Across 2,349 long-lived staked Numerai models, the median worst drawdown is 19% of stake, half are never recovered, and the best earners drew down deepest.
· 9 min read
Numerai's Biggest New-User Wave Since 2021
Q1 2026 brought 492 new accounts, the most since 2021.
· 1 min read
Why Atomic Numerai Payout Factors Differ from Legacy
Crypto’s factor of 1 and smaller round principal reflect atomic policy.
· 2 min read
Numerai Staking in USD: Prices and Funding Dates Matter
A USD staking result needs dated funding, settlements and prices.
· 8 min read
Numerai Account Lifecycle: Who Stakes and What They Earn
Tracking all 9,056 Numerai Classic accounts from first submission to first stake: 62% never stake, and the class of 2025 is the first to lose money in year one.
· 6 min read
Is Numerai's Alpha Decaying? A Mid-2026 Deep Dive
Raw CORJ60 skill is cyclical, but the average Numerai model's MMC is at record lows and net yield has compressed from 179 bps per round to 8.7.
· 4 min read
Numerai Hedge Fund Performance: What Public Filings Reveal
SEC filings track reported assets rather than investment returns: the 13F long book grew $147M to $997M in 14 quarters and regulatory AUM crossed $1B.
· 2 min read
What Numerai Stake Changes Can Tell Us About Behavior
Stake changes reveal allocations, but do not identify deposits, withdrawals or intent.
· 4 min read
Anatomy of a Numerai Burn Streak: The Worst Runs on Record
147 of 1,101 resolved Classic rounds burned more NMR than they paid.
· 1 min read
How Much NMR Is Locked During Atomic Migration?
Adding unresolved round stakes overcounts reused legacy collateral.
· 4 min read
Do Older Numerai Models Score Better? Age vs Performance
4.3 million staked model-rounds say no: models under six months old post the best MMC and payout per NMR, and performance decays as models age.
· 4 min read
Do Numerai Stakers Flee After Burns? An Event Study
A historical comparison of stake changes after 1,055 Classic round resolutions.
· 5 min read
Numerai Submission Consistency: What Skipping Rounds Costs
Of 12,300 staked Numerai Classic models, 26% never miss a round — and the most consistent attendance bucket earns the highest payout per staked NMR.
· 9 min read
Why No-Stake Submissions Outnumber Staked Ones on Numerai
Two-thirds of Numerai submissions now carry zero stake — not spam, but an eight-fold rise in newcomers who submit predictions and never stake NMR.
· 2 min read
Numerai Metrics: Scores, Positions, Capital and Supply
A guide to Numerai metric definitions: CORR60/MMC60, diagnostic scores, positive-stake models, position returns, committed capital and actual supply burns.
· 5 min read
Inside Numerai's 13F: What The Hedge Fund Actually Holds
Numerai's year-end 2025 13F reports $830M across 608 US equity positions, with the largest holding just 1.06% of the book — a systematic fingerprint.
· 5 min read
NMR Price vs Tournament Activity: Six Years of Correlation
NMR hit $89 in April 2021 with 331K staked; by April 2026 it sat near $9 with 830K staked.
· 1 min read
Numerai Yield: Round Returns Are Not Annual Returns
A return on one atomic position cannot be multiplied by 260 to measure annual staking yield.
· 4 min read
Numerai AUM: From $150M To $1B In Form ADV Filings
Numerai GP LLC reported $1.045B AUM in its April 2026 Form ADV — a 7x climb from $150M in 2022.
· 2 min read
Reading Numerai Rankings and Committed-Capital Returns
Numerai ranks, reputation scores, model stake and 13w/52w returns answer different questions.
· 1 min read
Numerai Stake Tiers Need a Comparable Capital Basis
Fixed NMR tiers move models between buckets at the atomic boundary.
· 1 min read
Numerai Round Cadence and the Atomic Scoring Horizon
Daily and weekly describe round openings, not investment duration.
· 5 min read
Numerai vs Kaggle: Where Data Scientists Actually Earn
Numerai vs Kaggle compared as money-making venues: 1.39M NMR net paid, 5,200+ active models, and a top-100 ladder that pays from $1.7K to $287K a year.
· 1 min read
Numerai Payout Dates: Schedule, Settlement and Claims
Numerai round endings, confirmed settlement and wallet claims have different clocks.
· 6 min read
Numerai 2026: A Statistical Snapshot Of The Tournament
Numerai as of April 28, 2026: 830,184 NMR staked across 6,467 models, NMR at $8.91, and Form ADV regulatory AUM at $1.045B.
· 1 min read
Numerai Break-Even Scores and Committed Capital
Numerai break-even has two denominators: the payout score of one position and the capital needed to fund overlapping rounds.
· 5 min read
Leaderboard Earthquake Index: Rank Volatility in Numerai
The median Numerai model shifts 30 rank positions per day.
· 5 min read
Model Archetypes: Five Numerai Quant Profiles
Clustering 19,000 Numerai models by MMC, CORJ60, BMC, and FNCv3 reveals five archetypes.
· 5 min read
Payout Gini: Is Numerai Becoming Winner-Take-All?
Numerai payout inequality rose from a Gini of 0.85 to roughly 0.97 and now tracks stake inequality — concentration is high but no longer rising.
· 1 min read
Numerai Stake Changes Are Not Verified Cash Flows
Round principal changes through payouts, allocation settings, migration or funding.
· 2 min read
Numerai Volatility and the Capital That Can Compound
Volatile payouts can reduce compounded growth, but atomic principal compounds only after release.
· 5 min read
Meta-Model Crowding: The Tax on Success
Large Numerai stakers correlate far more with the meta-model than the crowd does, and models that 5x their stake see MMC decay to zero within 20 rounds.
· 4 min read
Return Persistence: Do Numerai's Winners Keep Winning?
Numerai return persistence is weak: lag-20 autocorrelation is negative, the MMC quintile matrix is close to random, and top-100 half-life is about 5 days.
· 4 min read
Scoring Version Roulette: When Numerai Changes the Rules
Consecutive Numerai MMC versions reshuffle models: 37.5% of observations shift more than 15 percentile points and only 2% look robust across versions.
· 4 min read
Metric Convergence: Is Numerai Becoming a Monoculture?
MMC and BMC now agree at 0.95+ and MMC dispersion has compressed ~45%, but sign agreement has been flat for 900 rounds.
· 5 min read
Numerai SEC Filings: 13F and Form ADV Footprint
SEC 13F and Form ADV data show Numerai GP LLC as the sole filer in this dataset, with roughly $5.5B of cumulative reported equity value in 13 quarters.
· 4 min read
Classic vs Signals vs Crypto: Numerai Tournaments Compared
Participation, stake, returns, and MMC difficulty compared across Numerai's Classic, Signals, and Crypto tournaments using nmrdash data.
· 4 min read
Numerai Burn Rounds: When Models Fail Together
Numerai burn rounds cluster hard (r=0.77 between consecutive rounds), the worst wiping out 85% of staked models, and NMR price barely warns you.
· 6 min read
Diversification Paradox: More Numerai Models Isn't Better
Do multi-model Numerai operators outperform?
· 4 min read
Numerai Submission Scores: From Day 1 to Resolution
Daily Numerai submission scores are noisy early and converge late.
· 5 min read
Numerai Benchmark Models: The Bar You Need to Clear
How Numerai's benchmark_blender performs on MMC, where it ranks against staked models, and what it actually takes to beat it round after round.
· 6 min read
Numerai Model Survival: Who Lasts and Who Burns Out
Half of new Numerai models go inactive within roughly 200 rounds.
· 4 min read
Stake-Weighted Age: Is Numerai's Meta-Model Getting Older?
Stake-weighted model age has climbed past 1,700 days.
· 4 min read
Numerai Medals and Grandmasters: How the Ranking Works
How Numerai awards gold, silver, and bronze medals each round, the MMC thresholds needed to earn them, and why consistency beats peak scores.
· 2 min read
NMR Token Economics: Capital, Losses and Supply
NMR supply destruction, settled tournament losses and committed staking capital are different ledgers.
· 2 min read
Is Numerai Staking Profitable? Define the Return First
Positive aggregate NMR payouts do not establish the typical account’s return.
· 2 min read
Numerai Round Economics: Principal, Rewards and Losses
Numerai round outcomes allocate NMR against prediction risk.
· 1 min read
Numerai Payout Factor After Atomic Staking
The payout factor is one part of Numerai’s round policy.
· 1 min read
CORR60 and MMC60: What Numerai Pays For
Classic atomic payouts combine CORR60 and MMC60.
· 2 min read
Numerai Meta-Model Weights and Stake Concentration
NMR weights convey prediction risk, but concentration does not count independent strategies.
· 3 min read
How Numerai Works with Atomic NMR Staking
How Numerai connects prediction scores to NMR at risk: atomic round positions, capital recycling, model contribution, settlement and token supply.
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