Numerai staking profitability can mean a positive position outcome, positive account net NMR, or a positive USD return. Those are different tests. A positive aggregate payout cannot tell us how the median account performed or how much capital it needed.
Revised September 8, 2026. Earlier universal payout mechanics and compounding claims are withdrawn; historical pool totals are not presented as a typical account’s return.
A settled position has a directly measurable return
For Crypto round 1326, the captured net outcome was 24.84747 NMR on 2,268.05776 NMR principal, or 1.09554%. The surrounding confirmed rounds show that individual position outcomes vary on both sides of zero.
The Models page reports matched settled-position returns and the share of eligible models with positive net NMR. Model-level results still differ from account outcomes: one account may run several models, transfer funds, pause, or change strategies.
Profit in NMR is not automatically profit in dollars
A useful USD calculation needs dated prices and funding or valuation rules. Multiplying every past reward by the latest token price answers a current-mark question, not how much cash was received. The USD note separates those interpretations.
The atomic primer also explains why settled losses need not destroy supply immediately. Economic profit, withdrawable funds and the token supply ledger should not be combined into one headline.
I would require observed account funding, settlement and valuation histories before estimating a typical annual staking return. Until then, a measured position outcome is more informative than an unsupported investment yield.
Method: dated public round records captured September 8, 2026; confirmed staking outcomes only. The figure is a recent-round sample, not lifetime results. No automatic whole-account compounding or annualization.