Numerai Hedge Fund Performance: What Public Filings Reveal
Numerai doesn't publish returns, but SEC filings track its growth: the 13F long book grew $147M to $997M in 14 quarters and regulatory AUM crossed $1B.
Anyone searching for Numerai hedge fund performance runs into the same wall: like most hedge funds, Numerai does not publish its returns. There is no public NAV series, no monthly tear sheet, no audited track record to download. What does exist is a paper trail of mandatory SEC disclosures (quarterly 13F holdings reports and Form ADV registrations), and that trail says a lot about the fund's trajectory even if it cannot give you a Sharpe ratio. This article works through what those filings show, and just as importantly, what they cannot show.
Numerai, founded by Richard Craib in 2015, runs market-neutral equity strategies built on the stake-weighted meta-model crowdsourced from its tournament. The fund files as Numerai GP LLC with the SEC, which makes two datasets public: every quarter, a 13F listing its long US equity positions, and periodically, a Form ADV reporting regulatory assets under management.
The Long Book Grew ~7x in 14 Quarters
The 13F series is the cleanest growth signal. Numerai's first filing, for 2022 Q4, disclosed $146.6M of US long positions. The most recent, for 2026 Q1, disclosed $997.3M, a 6.8x increase across 14 consecutive quarterly filings.
Form ADV tells the same story from a different angle. Regulatory AUM was $149.7M in early 2022, $388.8M by April 2023, $695.5M in the late-2025 filing, and $1.05B as of the April 2026 amendment. Advised accounts (the funds and vehicles the adviser runs) grew from 1 to 11 over the same span. Note that regulatory AUM is a gross figure that can include leverage; it is not investor capital or net asset value. The quarterly AUM breakdown covers this series in more detail.
Growth Was Not a Straight Line
Quarter-over-quarter changes in the long book are the closest thing to a public performance-adjacent series, with a major caveat: they mix trading gains and losses with subscriptions, redemptions, and gross-exposure changes. There is no way to separate the components from the outside.
The drawdown in the middle of the series is real and large: the book fell from $490M at 2023 Q2 to $232M at 2024 Q1, a 53% decline over three consecutive down quarters (-39%, -6%, -18%). Whether that was losses, redemptions, or a deliberate de-grossing is not knowable from the filings. What is knowable is the recovery: seven of the eight quarters since have been positive, and the book has more than quadrupled from that trough.
The Fund Is Now 21x the Token
For tournament participants, the most striking comparison is between the fund and the NMR token that powers it. At the first 13F in late 2022, the long book was about 1.9x the NMR market cap. By 2026 Q1 the book had grown to $997M while NMR's market cap had fallen to roughly $46M: the disclosed long positions alone are now 21.6x the value of every NMR in circulation.
The comparison with the tournament's staked pool is starker still: total stake is around 874K NMR (under $6M at recent prices), meaning the fund's disclosed long book is more than 150x the capital the crowd has at risk generating its signal. The NMR token economics piece digs into why fund growth and token price have decoupled.
Where the Growth Went: Breadth, Not Size
The portfolio's construction is visible too. Position count grew from 111 holdings in the first filing to 746 in the latest, while the average position size stayed almost exactly flat: $1.32M then, $1.34M now. Numerai scaled by adding names, not concentrating bets, consistent with a systematic market-neutral book where the meta-model spreads exposure across a wide universe.
Concentration metrics, the largest current positions, and how holdings persist across filings are tracked live on the holdings dashboard and analyzed in Inside Numerai's 13F.
What the Filings Cannot Tell You
Every number above deserves its caveats, and they are not small:
- 13Fs show longs only. Numerai runs market-neutral strategies, so roughly half the book (the short side) is invisible, along with any non-US positions, cash, and derivatives beyond listed options.
- Notional is not NAV. A $997M long book at, say, 2-3x gross leverage implies far less investor capital than the headline suggests.
- Flows and returns are entangled. A +20% quarter could be strong performance, new capital, or added leverage.
- Regulatory AUM is gross. The $1.05B ADV figure includes leverage and is not comparable to the "AUM" a fund would market.
The honest summary: Numerai's realized returns remain private, but the direction of every public series (long book, regulatory AUM, account count, position breadth) points the same way. An adviser does not typically grow disclosed assets 7x in three and a half years while performing poorly, but the filings cannot prove that either. For how the fund's growth relates to what tournament participants actually earn, see Is Staking on Numerai Profitable? and the SEC institutional footprint analysis.