The most consequential Numerai metric error is using a correct number for the wrong economic question. A round’s stake is not total capital, a positive score is not a payout, and an economic loss is not necessarily an immediate supply burn.
Definitions reviewed September 8, 2026.
| Measure | What it describes | What must accompany it |
|---|---|---|
| CORR60 | Correlation to the 60-day target | Target, version, universe and score finality |
| MMC60 | Residual contribution relative to the meta-model | Reference model, target and matched score population |
| Legacy CORR20 / MMC | Historical score fields | Their original horizon; never an automatic alias for a 60-day field |
| BMC | Benchmark Model Contribution | Diagnostic versus payout eligibility from the round config |
| Alpha / MPC | Signals scores | Effective round policy and finality |
| Neutral Signals scores | New score fields when supplied | Availability and effective score version; no assumed atomic launch |
| Positive-stake models | Model positions with principal above zero | Completed staking window and model-list coverage |
| Round return | Settled net NMR / same-position principal | Unannualized, with the staking regime |
| Current staked NMR | Reconciled balance by tournament and generation | Source timestamp, scope and generation coverage |
| Economic losses | Negative settled outcomes | Separate from deferred debt and token supply destruction |
| Supply destroyed | Reported reduction in token supply | Supply source and as-of time |
Weight the same population
An equal-weight mean over every submitter cannot be compared as a size effect with a stake-weighted mean over only stakers. The score charts now use the same positive-stake, scored, non-benchmark population for both. They show coverage and distinguish provisional scores.
Keep the economic intention visible
NMR puts consequences on prediction submissions. Contribution diagnostics help evaluate those predictions; the configured payout determines the position’s outcome. Neither establishes the hedge fund’s realized performance.
A fixed absolute stake threshold can manufacture an apparent participation collapse when the unit changes. The migration balance note explains the corresponding capital distinction.
Figure method: observed Classic rounds 1342 and 1343, model lists captured September 8, 2026. All positive fractional stakes count. Source fields are retained in the dated audit extract.