Numerai Tournament Trends

Daily snapshots separate score diagnostics, round principal and confirmed economic outcomes.

Score trends by round cadence

Explicit CORR60/MMC60 and separately labeled historical metrics. Equal and stake weighting use the same positive-stake, scored, non-benchmark population. Provisional scores and coverage are marked.

Score-history correlation

Pairwise final score-history correlations for the current top-50 cohort over 26 observed weekly rounds. A retrospective cohort and score correlation do not establish independent strategies or prediction similarity.

Principal per round

Weekly and daily principal series with the Classic atomic boundary at round 1343. A round position is not total committed capital across overlapping positions.

Rewards, losses and net outcomes

Only confirmed staking outcomes, dated by scheduled round end. Economic losses can create deferred burn debt; these are not claim cash flows or immediate token supply destruction.

Payout factor

Recorded policy for opened weekly and daily rounds, including unresolved rounds. Atomic Classic uses factor 1. Score multipliers and clipping also matter.

Participation

Submitted model counts for completed weekly and daily windows. Models are not unique people or accounts.