Numerai Model Analytics

14.3K models in the Classic tournament. Per-round staking flow, stake concentration, turnover, effective N, and payout ROI analysis.

Top 10 Models by Stake

#ModelStake
1shatteredx106.3K NMR
2cloud_predictor58.3K NMR
3phorex37.6K NMR
4reputation30.0K NMR
5aininja20.2K NMR
6roadrunner14.5K NMR
7lolabunny14.4K NMR
8super_model14.4K NMR
9mrotsdma2013.0K NMR
10ummon12.4K NMR

Analytics

Charts on This Page

Per-Round Staking Flow

Sortable table of every weekly round since round 400. Columns: total stakers, net change vs prior round, new stakers (entered staking from any prior state), converted stakers (subset whose immediately prior submission was unstaked), unstakers (had stake last round, no longer staked this round), and unstaked submitters (submitted with zero NMR stake this round). Surfaces the in/out flow of staked participation week over week.

Meta Model Control (Top 10 Models)

A 100% stacked bar chart showing the percentage of total tournament stake held by each of the top 10 models (plus an "other" bucket) each round. Reveals whether a small number of models dominate the tournament's stake or if stake is broadly distributed.

Stake Concentration

Area chart with four layers showing the cumulative percentage of total stake held by the top 1, 5, 10, and 25 models over time. A rising area means stake is concentrating among fewer models; a shrinking area means stake is distributing more broadly.

Does Money Follow Skill?

Line chart comparing the stake-weighted average MMC against the equal-weight average MMC each round. When the stake-weighted line is above the equal-weight line, models with more NMR staked are outperforming the average — indicating that capital allocation in the tournament correlates with predictive skill.

Annualized Payout ROI

Area chart showing the annualized return on investment across the tournament, calculated as (total payout / total stake) × 52. Clipped to a ±50% range. Shows the overall profitability of staking NMR in the Numerai tournament over time.

Top 20 Model Turnover

Stacked bar chart for each round showing how many of the top 20 staked models are returning from the previous round versus newly entering the top 20. High turnover indicates a competitive, dynamic leaderboard; low turnover indicates entrenched top models.

Effective Number of Models (1/HHI)

Composed chart with the effective number of models (calculated as 1 divided by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of stake shares) on the left axis and total model count on the right axis. The effective N measures how many models would exist if stake were equally distributed — a lower effective N relative to total models means stake is highly concentrated.

Total Staked Over Time

Composed chart with total NMR staked on the left axis and USD equivalent value on the right axis. Shows both the raw amount of NMR committed to the Classic tournament and its dollar value over time, reflecting both participation trends and NMR price movements.

Stake % with Positive vs Negative MMC

A 100% stacked area chart showing the proportion of stake held by models with positive MMC versus negative MMC among the top 50 staked models. When the positive area dominates, the largest stakers are contributing to the meta model; when negative grows, large stakers are underperforming.

Stake-Weighted Model Age

Line chart comparing the stake-weighted average model age (in years) against the equal-weight average. When the stake-weighted age exceeds the equal-weight age, older established models hold more stake. When it falls below, newer models are capturing more of the staking capital.